India’s 19-Day Countdown to Dodge Trump’s Tariff Shock
India is entering a tense diplomatic window, with just 19 days to prevent a massive trade shock as US President Donald Trump’s new tariff plan looms. On August 6, Trump announced a hike in tariffs on Indian goods to 50% from the current 25%, citing New Delhi’s continued purchase of Russian oil despite Western sanctions. The move, set to take effect on August 27, threatens to hit India’s export sector hard and inject new friction into US–India ties.
Washington’s decision is part of a broader strategy to choke Moscow’s oil revenues and pressure Russian President Vladimir Putin into a ceasefire in Ukraine. India, however, has pushed back, calling the tariff escalation “unfair” and “unjustified.”
Trump Rules Out Trade Talks with India
In a fresh blow to diplomatic hopes, Trump made it clear on Thursday that trade negotiations with India will not resume until the tariff dispute is settled. “No, not until we get it resolved,” Trump said in the Oval Office, signaling a hardline stance that leaves New Delhi with little room for quick compromise.
Prominent Indian-American attorney Ravi Batra has warned that “much more is at stake” beyond just the tariffs, hinting at potential ripple effects on defense, technology, and investment cooperation between the two countries.
India Eyes Alternative Alliances
Dammu Ravi, secretary of economic relations at India’s Ministry of External Affairs, dismissed the US tariff hike as lacking “logic” and described it as a “temporary aberration.” He hinted that New Delhi might look to rebalance global partnerships and expand cooperation with “like-minded” nations.
This approach is already in motion. On Thursday night, Prime Minister Modi held talks with Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, discussing “regional and global issues of mutual interest.” Brazil has also been hit by Trump’s tariffs and is reportedly considering a coordinated BRICS response.
Deepening Ties with Russia
Even as Washington applies pressure, India is tightening its strategic relationship with Moscow. On Thursday, Russian President Vladimir Putin met India’s National Security Adviser Ajit Doval at the Kremlin. The two reaffirmed their commitment to a “strategic partnership,” according to Russia’s RIA news agency.
External Affairs Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar is scheduled to visit Russia on a previously planned trip, while Putin is expected to travel to India later this year for high-level talks.
Modi’s Upcoming China Visit Signals Diplomatic Pivot
In a notable geopolitical shift, Modi is preparing for his first visit to China in over seven years. He will attend the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) summit in Tianjin from August 31 to September 1 and is expected to hold a bilateral meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping.
China has been vocal in its criticism of Washington’s tariff measures. Chinese ambassador to New Delhi Xu Feihong offered Modi public support, posting on X: “Give the bully an inch, he will take a mile,” echoing Beijing’s foreign minister Wang Yi’s stance against using tariffs as a weapon.
Farmers’ Interests Remain Non-Negotiable
Addressing the issue domestically, Modi assured that farmers’ welfare will not be compromised despite the looming economic consequences. “India will never compromise on the wellbeing of its farmers, dairy sector, and fishermen,” he said at an event in New Delhi. “I know personally I will have to pay a heavy price for it.”
India’s agricultural exports — including dairy and seafood — could face steep barriers if the tariffs are implemented, intensifying domestic political pressure on the government.
Wider US Tariff Strategy
The tariffs on Indian goods are part of a multi-pronged US trade offensive that also targets sectors like semiconductors, pharmaceuticals, autos, steel, aluminum, copper, and lumber under national security provisions. Trump has even warned that microchip tariffs could go as high as 100%.
China is on a separate track, facing its own potential tariff escalation on August 12 unless a prior trade truce is extended. Trump has also threatened further tariffs on China’s purchases of Russian oil, signaling that his strategy is aimed at cutting off Moscow’s financial lifelines from multiple directions.
The Road Ahead for New Delhi
With less than three weeks to avert the tariff shock, India’s options appear limited:
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Diplomatic engagement with BRICS, Russia, and China to build a counter-pressure coalition.
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Exploring trade diversification to reduce reliance on the US market.
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Targeted concessions that address US concerns without compromising core interests.
The coming days will test New Delhi’s ability to maneuver between great powers while protecting its economic stability — and its strategic autonomy.
